Phoenix economy among nation's weakest - Business First of Columbus:

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The first MetroMonitor studyg from the Washington research group looks at the impact of the recession on the 100largesr U.S. metro areas. It will be updatedr quarterly. The study divide the metro areas into five categoriees based on overalleconomi strength, and the Phoenix area is positioned in the “second-weakest” category with a diverss group of cities including Tucson, San Minneapolis, Orlando and Cleveland. “Phoenix has one of the weakest economies in the nationright now,” according to Lee director of the at .
“The characteristics of this particular recessiob all combined to hit Arizonaw harder than almost anyother state, and Phoenic has fallen further than almost any other major labor market.” Overall economic performance in the cities was determined in four ways: change in employmentt rate from peak one-year percentage-point change in unemployment change in gross metropolitan product from peak levels; and one-yeard change in home values. All data are currenft through the first quarteerof 2009. Metro areas in Texas and Oklahoma dominatethe strongest-performing group, including San Antonio, Houston, Oklahoma City and Tulsa.
No city west of Albuquerque, ranked in the best-performing group. While Detroit was ranked the weakest-performing metro areas in California and Floridqa dominated thebottom 20. Fresno and Modesto were the Californi cities near the bottom ofthe rankings, as were the Florida citiese of Tampa, Jacksonville and Miami. “While some areas of the countrg have experienced only a shallows downturn and may be emerginb from the recession people living in metro areaz that are now performing weakest economically should prepare themselves for a long recovery period,” according to study co-author Alan Berube, research director of the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings.
“Wha t we did conclude is (for example) Phoenix was in the next-to-botto group of metros on economi c performance over the course ofthe recession,” he The rankings for the Phoeniz metro area are all over the board. According to the MetroMonitor the Valley showed the strongest quarterly growty in wages from the fourth quarterd of 2008 to the first quarter of this Its gainof 2.6 percent was far stronge than the U.S. average of 1 placing the cityat No. 1 in that category.
According to the cities such as Phoenix and Las Vegas that have sustained large job losses saw their averagse wage levels rise over the last That may indicate migration to these placeahas slowed, especially among less skilled workers, and that recenyt job losses have occurred disproportionately among lower-payinhg industries. While Phoenix was tops for wage the city ranked very poorly in nearlt every othereconomic indicator. Its quarterly drop in employmentrwas 2.9 percent, much greatee than the national average drop of 1.5 percent. That ranked Phoenid 98th among the 100metro areas.
The Valleh also performed poorly in housing ranking 92nd inthe one-year changs in housing prices, with a drop of 16.6 percent. The nationakl average drop wasonly 6.3 percent. “Phoenis attracts potential buyers at thenational level. It is a fast-movinvg efficient market, and that is why prices have come ASU’s McPheters said. “The silver lining is that homezs are affordable againin Phoenix, settinfg the stage for a strong rebound in the economuy after 2010.” The Phoenix area ranked 95th in the numbe of real estate-owned properties, with nearlyg four times more of those properties than the nationalp average.
REOs are properties that revert to the mortgaged holder after an unsuccessfulforeclosure auction. Accordingg to Brookings, the nation’d 100 largest metropolitan areas those with atleast 500,000 residents in 2007 collectively contain two-thirds of the nation’s jobs and generatd three-quarters of gross domestic product. While the economy is in worse shape here than most other areas of the the Phoenix area has been down before and respondesd withstaggering growth. “Although Arizona is at a low the state and Phoenix have the capabilityu to rebound with growth rates two to threde times those of the nation asa whole.” McPheterss said.