End of recession may be in sight - Atlanta Business Chronicle:

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percentage points in May to 85, bases on a 1997 benchmark of 100. The relative stability in the UO Index over the past three monthsz is consistent with a pattern ofeconomicx stabilization, but falls short of a turn that woulrd conclusively mark the end of the said Tim Duy, director of the Oregon Economic Forum and a UO adjunc assistant professor, in a statement. Oregon labor market data continuee tobe mixed. Initial jobless claims edged downward but remain at a level that suggestsd further declines innonfarmm payrolls. Still, initial claims remain well beloew the peak of December as the pace of economic deterioratiom hasslowed markedly.
Employmentr services payroll — largely temporary help agencies fellin May, but, importantly, the rate of declines is slowing, Duy said. Nonfarm payrolls (not includer in the index) fell by just 100 jobs durinb May, an abrupt slowing compared to the recent It is difficult to see a substantial improvemeng in thejobs however, with initial claims remaininv at high levels, Duy The unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent. Residentiao housing permits continuedto decline, fallinb to just 627. The typical seasonal boost in buildingf activity islargely absent, a testament to persistent weaknesse in the housing market.
Builders are finding it difficultg to compete in an environment of rising foreclosures and tighter underwritingt conditions forhome mortgages, Duy The Oregon weight-distance tax reversed gains seen the previoud month. In contrast, new orders for nondefense nonaircraftgcapital goods, adjusted for rose in May to the highest level sinc e December 2008. Despite the low levels, the relativs stability since the beginning of the year is a hopefulk sign that the worst declines in business spendingb arebehind us, Duy said. U.S. consume confidence rose again in May, a furthere indication that consumer spending has he added. The Oregon economy likelyh remained in recessionin May.
That said, the pace of deterioratio has slowed. The six-month annualized change in the indexc improved significantly over the pasttwo months, from -11.8 percentt in March to -8 percent in May. Similar improvementg signaled an impending end to the 2001 and would be consistent with the prediction that economic growth would firm in the second halfof 2009. Duy said, caution is warranted. The UO Index has not yet turneds upward, and the six-month change remains well below rates normally consistent witheconomic expansions, and more than half of the indexd components remain below six-month ago Finally, there is a strong possibility of a “joblessx recovery” as the economt continues to face structural adjustment issuesw that limit the pace of